21/04/2022

Results of Inflation Expectations Survey

Amid rising uncertainty, similarly to previous months, short-term inflation expectations of the financial sector continued to move in the range between 4.5% and 5.0%.

According to the Ipsos March survey, the financial sector expects inflation in March 2023 to be at 5.0%, while according to the Bloomberg April survey, one-year ahead inflation expectations of the financial sector are lower, standing at 4.5%.

According to the Ipsos survey, one-year ahead inflation expectations of the corporate sector declined from 7.5% in February to 5.0% in March, thus becoming equal to financial sector expectations.

Two- and three-year ahead inflation expectations of the financial and corporate sectors are lower than short-term expectations – they are within the target tolerance band and range between 3.0% and 4.0% for the financial sector, and stand at 3.5% for the corporate sector in both years observed. Such survey results may indicate that the financial and corporate sectors expect a reduction in inflationary pressures with the stabilisation of movements in international commodity markets.

Anchored medium-term inflation expectations, underpinned by exchange rate stability, enhance the efficiency of monetary policy in maintaining low, stable and predictable inflation in the medium run, which is one of the necessary preconditions of sustainable economic growth.

For the purpose of more transparent communication with the public, since May 2015 the NBS has been publishing regular monthly reports on inflation expectations of the financial sector, corporate sector, trade unions and households. The Report on the Results of the Inflation Expectations Survey and the accompanying materials (time series, methodology and the survey questionnaire) can be accessed on the NBS website, section Publications.

Governor’s Office