Results of Inflation Expectations Survey

As indicated by the Ipsos survey conducted last December, short- and medium-term inflation expectations of the financial sector continue to move within the bounds of the NBS target tolerance band (3±1.5%). Representatives of the financial sector expect that in December 2022 inflation will measure 4.5%.   

According to the results of the January Bloomberg survey, one-year ahead inflation expectations of the financial sector are lower and equal 3.5%.

Under the Ipsos survey, inflation expectations of the corporate sector increased in December to 6.0%, reflecting to a large degree the energy crisis and uncertainty over electricity prices that existed at the time of the survey. Such higher inflation expectations of corporates are most probably also a consequence of the cost-push pressures in terms of both prices of other production inputs and prices of own final products and services.

Inflation expectations for two and three years ahead remain anchored within the target band in case of both the financial and corporate sector, ranging between 3.0% and 4.0%. These results indicate that the financial and corporate sector perceive the current higher inflation as temporary, which is an assessment shared by the NBS, as well as most central banks in the world.

Anchored inflation expectations, underpinned also by exchange rate stability, enhance the efficiency of the monetary policy in maintaining low, stable and predictable inflation in the medium run, which is one of the necessary preconditions of sustainable economic growth.

For the purpose of more transparent communication with the public, since May 2015 the NBS has been publishing regular monthly reports on inflation expectations of the financial sector, corporate sector, trade unions and households. The Report on the Results of the Inflation Expectations Survey and the accompanying materials (time series, methodology and the survey questionnaire) can be accessed on the NBS website, section Publications.