| 2024 |
- Text box 1: What do different inflation indicators and consumer price growth distribution tell us?
- Text box 2: Trends in the income and consumption of Serbian households based on the results of household budget surveys
- Text box 3: When can leading central banks be expected to start lowering their key policy rates?
- Text box 4: Reliability of futures in global oil price forecasting
- Text box 5: Comparison of the outcome of macroeconomic projections for 2023 with the NBS’s projections from a year ago and with projections of other institutions
- Text box 6: Alternative projection scenarios
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- Text box 1: Core inflation trends at home and in the region
- Text box 2: Corporates’ expectations of business conditions in Serbia
- Text box 3: Workings of the transmission mechanism and cycles of monetary policy tightening by the National Bank of Serbia
- Text box 4: Impact of wages on inflation
- Text box 5: Alternative projection scenarios
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- Text box 1: Recent food price trends in Serbia
- Text box 2: Analysis of promotional sales across retail chains based on the NBS’s survey
- Text box 3: Terms of foreign borrowing by the Republic of Serbia
- Text box 4: Recent trends in manufacturing
- Text box 5: Geopolitical risk – channels of influence and quantification of risk
- Text box 6: Alternative projection scenarios
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| 2023 |
- Text box 1: Signals that global inflationary pressures are losing steam
- Text box 2: Inflation expectations surveys: what are the results telling us at the moment?
- Text box 3: Recent FX reserve trends, with special emphasis on Serbia
- Text box 4: Assessment of Serbia’s BoP trends in 2022 and factors behind a better than expected outcome
- Text box 5: Assessment of Serbian labour market conditions
- Text box 6: Alternative scenarios for the projection
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- Text box 1: Assessment of Serbia’s resilience to the effects of multidimensional crisis – coronavirus pandemic, energy crisis and Ukraine conflict
- Text box 2: Food prices in production and consumption: dynamics, determinants, comparison by country and outlook
- Text box 3: Impact of developments in the Serbian energy sector on macroeconomic trends
- Text box 4: Alternative projection scenarios
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- Text box 1: Real-time inflation nowcasting at NBS using online prices
- Text box 2: Assessment of Serbia’s balance of payments in H1 2023 and factors behind the improvement of external position
- Text box 3: Analysis of the Serbian corporate sector’s operating and financial performance in the 2019–2022 period
- Text box 4: Core inflation factors and trends globally
- Text box 5: Alternative projection scenario – slower than expected global economic
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- Text box 1: Pork price movements in Serbia, underlying factors and outlook going forward
- Text box 2: FX supply and demand factors at home
- Text box 3: Impact of fiscal policy measures on inflation in Serbia
- Text box 4: Manufacturing trends in Germany and their impact on Serbia’s manufacturing output and export
- Text box 5: Inflation outlook at home and abroad
- Text box 6: Alternative projection scenarios – different assumptions for global primary commodity prices
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| 2022 |
- Text box 1: High growth in global food and oil prices in 2021 compared to previous periods
- Text box 2: Pandemic impact on savings and investment balance
- Text box 3: Manufacturing performance amid global supply chain disruptions
- Text box 4: Macroeconomic effects of the global energy crisis on Serbia
- Text box 5: Price shocks and their effect on y-o-y inflation
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- Text box 1: Serbia’s economic policy response to rising global prices of food and energy – an overview of measures and comparative analysis of regional peers
- Text box 2: Macroeconomic effects of the Ukraine conflict on Serbia
- Text box 3: Anticipated effects of monetary policy normalisation by leading central banks on Serbia
- Text box 4: Revision of macroeconomic projections for Serbia and alternative scenario
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- Text box 1: Global inflation and central banks’ monetary policy responses
- Text box 2: Factors contributing to CAD increase in 2022
- Text box 3: Factors behind the surge in food prices worldwide and in Serbia and expectations going forward
- Text box 4: Impact of meteorological conditions on fruit and vegetable prices in Serbia
- Text box 5: Alternative scenarios of inflation, GDP and CAD projections
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- Text box 1: Analysis of factors behind the deviation of actual from projected inflation in Serbia in 2021 and 2022
- Text box 2: Tightening of global financial conditions
- Text box 3: Assessment of inflationary pressures based on text analysis
- Text box 4: Alternative projection scenario with the assumed higher global energy and primary commodity prices
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| 2021 |
- Text box 1: Core inflation in Serbia – determinants, indicators and outlook
- Text box 2: Capital flows to Serbia and its regional peers during the pandemic
- Text box 3: Impact of human mobility on economic activity 40
- Text box 4: Serbia’s labour market amid the coronavirus pandemic
- Text box 5: Impact of the pandemic on public debt and decomposition of the change in Serbia’s public debt
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- Text box 1: Fruit and vegetable prices in Serbia and their determinants
- Text box 2: Credit ratings during the pandemic – Serbia and other countries
- Text box 3: Estimate of corporate financial conditions
- Text box 4: Resilience of Serbia’s exports in a pandemic environment
- Text box 5: Expected macroeconomic effects of the rising primary commodity prices
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- Text box 1: Impact of producer price growth on consumer prices
- Text box 2: Contribution of construction to GDP growth
- Text box 3: Impact of new Labour Force Survey methodology on labour market indicators
- Text box 4: Estimate of the impact of base effects on y-o-y inflation
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- Text box 1: Causes of current inflation spikes
- Text box 2: Net position of corporates and households to banks in Serbia and their net external position in the pandemic and comparison with the previous crisis
- Text box 3: Economic recovery and prospects of Central and Southeast Europe
- Text box 4: Main challenges for monetary policies of emerging countries, Serbia included
- Text box 5: Role of the banking sector in financing economic growth and potential implications of disputes concerning bank fees for financial and macroeconomic stability
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| 2020 |
- Serbia’s risk premium and its determinants
Euro interest rate benchmark reform
- Dynamics and structure of fixed investments
- Assessment of macroeconomic trends in 2019
- Impact of the base effect on the y-o-y inflation profile in 2020
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- Serbia’s economic measures in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic
- First assessments of the macroeconomic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Serbia
- Impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the global economy
- Central bank and government measures aimed at alleviating negative economic consequences of coronavirus
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- Micro, small and medium-sized enterprises – disbursement of Guarantee Scheme loans and terms of financing
- Expected vs. actual macroeconomic developments in Q2
- Impact of the pandemic on inflation
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- How strong is the interest rate channel in Serbia?
- Impact of the coronavirus pandemic on global automobile industry and the implications for Serbia
- Structure and dynamics of corporate costs in 2014–2019
- Reviews of the Fed and ECB’s monetary strategies
- NBS’s projection of domestic GDP growth, its revision during the year and comparison with projections of international financial institutions
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| 2019 |
- Ten years into inflation targeting
- Balance of payments trends in 2018
- Monetary policy normalisation by leading central banks and the potential impact on Serbia
- Inflation and GDP projections for 2018
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- Additional FX swap auctions
- Synchronisation of economic and credit cycles of Serbia and the euro area
- Analysing the dynamics of Serbia’s savings and investment balance
- Analysis of trends in the market of agricultural and food products in Serbia
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- Serbia's prospects through the prism of foreign capital inflow
- Serbia’s position in the global services market
- Total factor productivity and its contribution to Serbia’s GDP growth
- Changes to the global growth outlook
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- Current trends in lending
- Household consumption – trends and prospects
- Serbia’s exports in a global slowdown environment
- Positive labour market trends in Serbia
- ECB and Fed’s new monetary policy measures and their potential impact on Serbia
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| 2018 |
- Significance of import prices for inflation in Serbia
- An overview of balance of payments in 2017
- Carry-over effect on the GDP growth rate
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- Inflation since early 2018 in Serbia and other countries with inflation targeting policy
- Changed methodology for monitoring wages in the Republic of Serbia
- Global prices of primary commodities in the forthcoming period
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- The most important measures and results of the NBS in the past six years
- FDI, exports and employment in manufacturing
- Analysis of corporate sector financial results in the 2014–2017 period
- The first assessments of this year's agricultural season and its impact on economic and foreign trade activity
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- Lending to small and medium-sized enterprises through the lenses of the new interest rate statistics
- Improvement of Serbia’s external position in the 2012–2017 period
- Revision of GDP data for the 2015–2017 period
- Rising trade tensions and their impact on global economic developments and Serbia
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| 2017 |
- Impact of seasonal factors on inflation in Serbia
- NPL resolution results
- Contribution of household consumption to the growth of Serbia’s economy
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- Impact of cold weather in early 2017 on inflation movements
- Impact of cold weather on economic and foreign trade activity
- Importance of the international environment for growth in Serbia and other emerging economies
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- Price and financial stability in Serbia
- Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for Serbia
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- Inflation indicators in 2017
- Lending growth and NPL resolution
- Competitive position of Serbia improved as a result of а more favourable macroeconomic and business environment
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| 2016 |
- Low inflation in Serbia and worldwide
- Qualitative inflation expectations of households
- Fall in loan interest rates
- Investment as a driver of GDP growth in 2015
- Current risks from the international environment
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- Inflow of capital in Serbia and other countries in the region
- FDI inflow as a prop-up to growth of commodity exports
- Impact of base effects from food and energy prices on y-o-y inflation in the period ahead
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- Terms of financing small and medium-sized enterprises
- Brexit and its impact on Serbia
- Improvement in Serbia’s macroeconomic prospects in the last two years
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- Revision of the inflation target to 3.0% ± 1.5 pp from 2017
- Automobile industry – fillip to Serbia’s industrial and export growth
- Effect of the new agricultural season on GDP
- Favourable fiscal movements and public debt reduction
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| 2015 |
- The Swiss National Bank’s decision to lift the cap on the franc’s value against the euro
- Dynamics and structure of Serbian trade in goods in 2014
- Macroeconomic effects of falling oil prices, globally and on Serbia
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- Precautionary stand-by arrangement with the IMF
- Current developments in the global iron and steel market and their impact on domestic production and exports
- ECB’s quantitative easing programme and assessment of its impact on Serbia and other emerging market economies
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- Inflation target set for the period until end-2018
- Further reduction in external imbalances in H1 2015
- Situation in Greece and its effect on Serbia
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- Serbia’s competitive position according to recent global competitiveness indicators
- Implications of movements in Chinese economy on global trends and Serbia
- Comparison of projections and their outcome
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| 2014 |
- FDI as a factor of export growth
- First results of the NBS survey on bank lending
- Recent changes in monetary policies across the world
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- Assessment of the extent to which inflation expectations of the private sector are anchored
- Methodological differences in monitoring labour market indicators and the structure of informal employment
- Potential effect of the Ukrainian crisis on Serbia
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- Application of new BPM6 methodology and improved coverage of balance of payments transactions
- Effects of new subsidised corporate lending programme
- Effect of floods on macroeconomic developments in Serbia
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- Fiscal policy performance in 2014
- Revisions to Serbia’s GDP according to ESA 2010 methodology
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| 2013 |
- Changes in calculation of consumer price index in 2013
- NPL trends and the recent mitigation measures of the National Bank of Serbia
- Current account determinants
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- Impact of new CPI structure on inflation volatility
- Projection of primary agricultural commodity prices
- Falling inflation expectations precede actual y-o-y inflation
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- Budget revision and new structural adjustment measures
- Causes of a slowdown in lending activity
- Reduction in the current account deficit in 2013
- Positive effects of automobile industry expansion
- Effects of the new agricultural season
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- Inflation targets by end-2016
- Impact of new economic policy measures on main macroeconomic indicators in 2014
- EU pre-accession funds in Serbia
- Impact of Fed’s monetary policy on Serbia and other regional peers
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| 2012 |
- Assessed impact of temporary factors on inflation movements in the first half of 2012
- New core inflation indicators
- Net financial position of corporates, households and the governmentwith banks in Serbia and abroad
- Is the current level of National Bank of Serbia’s international reserves an adequate insurance against potential risks?
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- Income and price conversion of Serbia and euro area countries
- Impact of cold weather in February on economic and foreign trade activity
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- Regulation of banking sector liquidity in the coming period
- Assessment of credibility of the monetary policy conducted by the National Bank of Serbia
- Effects of a bad agricultural season on GDP and inflation in Serbia
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- Financial exposure of foreign banks to Serbia
- Serbia improves its ranking on the ease of doing business
- Medium-term fiscal consolidation and cutting down public debt
- Drop in agricultural production and its impact on revision of GDP growth for 2012 and 2013
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| 2011 |
- New decomposition of the Consumer Price Index
- Contribution of CPI components to their y-o-y growth
- Credit rating in times of crisis – Serbia and neighbouring countries
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- Monetary policy reaction and the speed of inflation retreat within the target band
- Robust growth in prices of primary agricultural commodities – the key generator of inflation
- Revision of GDP data
Base effect and trends in y-o-y inflation
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- Foreign direct investment in Serbia
- Revision of quarterly GDP data
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- Advancing Serbia’s agricultural production and easing instability of food prices
- Budget revision
- Impact of the euro area economic crisis on Serbia
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| 2010 |
- A year into fully-fledged inflation targeting – the NBS’s objective for 2009 achieved
- Fiscal policy and deficit financing in 2010
- Economic crisis and potential output levels
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- Bank lending across the region in 2009
- Three-month FX swap auctions
- Future path of fiscal policy
- Structural balance of the Serbian budget
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- Comparative price levels for food in Serbia and countries in the region
- Expected interest rate movements in the European interbank market
- Fiscal policy in the medium run
- Labour Force Survey
EU fiscal consolidation
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- Food prices and the achievement of inflation target
- Profitability of savings from 2001 to 2010
- Fiscal responsibility – introducing fiscal rules
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| 2009 |
- Composition of Consumer Price Index, its advantages over Retail Price Index and regional comparison
- Inflation targeting as the National Bank of Serbia’s monetary policy strategy
- Depreciation pressures across Europe
- Common European currency and the current financial crisis
- Labour taxation in the region
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- New survey of inflation expectations
- New issues of RS treasury bills
- Enhanced Stand-By Arrangement with the IMF
- Government measures to ease the effects of the global financial crisis
- NBS adopts measures to boost financial sector liquidity
- Government’s fiscal policy in conditions of economic crisis
Beveridge curve
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- Treatment of seasonal agricultural commodities in retail and consumer price indices
- Price levels in Serbia versus the EU-27 average
- Foreign exchange swaps as a support to the country’s financial stability
- Assessment of the fiscal policy stance
Comparative analysis of the impact of vat increase on inflation
- Fiscal measures introduced by Central and East European countries
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- Will food prices continue to be a disinflationary factor?
- Projection of the balance of payments for 2009
- Risks of growing protectionism
- Impact of the Government Programme on lending activity
- GDP distribution and estimate of aggregate demand
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| 2008 |
- Global Growth in Food Prices – Agflation
- Interest Rate Transmission Mechanism
- Could Global Financial Developments Be a Cause of Depreciation Pressures in November and December?
- Credit Crunch Spreads to Eastern Europe
- World Oil Market Outlook for 2008
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- World Bank Recommendations Regarding Policy Interventions to Moderate the Effects of Rising Food Prices
- Credit Default Swap
- Аsymmetry of the Exchange Rate Pass-through to Domestic Prices
- Monetary Policy Effects on Trade Balance
- Current Account Deficit in Serbia and Other Countries
- Petrodollars and Bank Lending to Emerging Markets
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- Inflation and food prices across the region
- (Non)achievement of inflation targets across the world
- Is the exclusion-based method adequate for calculating core inflation?
- Monetary policy response to oil and agricultural shocks (August 2007 - June 2008)
- Is strong dinar an “enemy” of the Serbian economy?
- Economic policy response to rising commodity prices
- The Provision of Long-term Financing, Institutions, and Inflation
- Price of Oil and Economic Growth
- Macroeconomic effects of government bond issues
- Labour Market in Serbia and Countries of the Region
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- Meat price growth: causes and duration?
Effects of the global financial crisis on Serbia
- Why are natural gas prices heading up while crude oil prices are heading down?
- Global financial crisis and action taken by central banks and governments
- Price of iron and its impact on inflation
- Is the financial stability of Serbian economy under threat?
- Impact of budget revision on inflation
Impact of level of pensions on fiscal result
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| 2007 |
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- Price Growth Components
- Consumer Price Index
- Methodological Differences in Calculating Fiscal Result
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- Inflation Targeting Regimes
- Retail and Consumer Price Indices
- Price of Stability Equals Sterilization Costs
- Real Exchange Rate, Trend and Gap
- Change in the Manner of Announcing and Applying the Decision on the Level of the Key Policy Rate
- Consequences of Drought and Role of Monetary Policy
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- Consumer Price Index
- Distribution of Core Price Growth in September
- Drought Effects in the Region
- Disinflation and Optimal Monetary Policy Flexibility
- Consequences of the World Financial Crisis
- September Effects of Prudential Measures to Curb Household Lending
- Why Have Unemployment Figures Declined?
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